Dilly Duka may be a guy we need to start getting use to seeing with the national team. (Getty Images)

Every once in a while people I usually disagree with get something right. I’m sure it happens with some of you where you hardly ever agree with me but I write something that is absolute truth for once. I know, it happens both ways. Anyways today was just that as Greg Lalas posted a story on SI.com about the U-20 National team loss to Germany over the weekend.

He said to not over react about the 3-0 loss to the German side. Why? No need to go crazy over a bunch of college kids getting beat in this tournament. First of all the US is in the group of death really and getting out of it alive will be nothing short of impressive from my viewpoint. Second of all he’s dead on, most of these kids aren’t playing against professional players all the time like the majority if not all of the German squad. They’re college kids with the exception of a handfull.

While the US doesn’t have any stand out players in this group that is in Egypt it does however have plenty of potential to be special. Most of you probably haven’t seen guys like Dilly Duka play at Rutgers or Gale Agbossoumonde play at USL-1′s Miami FC. Speaking of Agbossoumonde, how he hasn’t been picked up by a MLS squad yet is kind of sad if you ask me. Maybe next year he will be in a Philly uniform or a DC one (whoever in MLS were to sign him they’d have to transfer him since he signed a three-year deal with Miami).

Point is even should this group not succeed like the one prior to it in 2007 that went to the quarter-finals it won’t be the worst thing in the world. Its all about good experience for this bunch which will really only make the next crop stronger in my mind…not to mention make this strong as well. I just see the next group building even more so off whatever this group does.

So don’t freak out when you see that 3-0 scoreline. Germany was clearly the better side and don’t be shocked if Cameroon gives the US just as big of a test as the Germans did. ——————————————————————-

Time For Youth Transfer Fees?

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Want a reason for youth players to get some transfer fees added on to a transfer from one of our MLS academies to the main MLS club to say a large European club? Some folks are wanting to see that start to happen. We all know that MLS clubs get transfer fees when a player goes on overseas usually but what about the youth team that brought him up? I like the idea of the youth team/program getting a little slice of the pie since they were the ones that really got the ball rolling on the kid to begin with. There’s more to it than that I’m sure but this is a great read.

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Playoff Odds

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If you are a fan of Columbus, San Jose or New York, just ignore this article over at Soccernet by Ives. We know Columbus is in and that New York has been eliminated from playoff contention since June, and San Jose is pretty dead in the water despite the win over DC this past weekend. Now Ives brings you each club’s odds to get into the playoffs. How he came to these numbers I do not now but they are fairly interesting enough to comment about. I’d honestly put KC and Dallas’ odds a bit higher than 30-1 and 40-1 respectively.

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Philly Stadium Update

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Wanna know why the Philly Stadium is just barely getting off the ground in its construction? Apparently it was a rainy summer up there. That slowed things down. Plus something about the economy being bad? All kidding aside, this article has an interesting interview with Philly CEO Nick Sakiewicz who wouldn’t give a definite figure on how much behind the stadium is right now.

Another interesting fact that I guess I hadn’t read before until today was their home opener will have a seating capacity of 37,000. I guess Union are taking after the Seattle mold in playing a game in a NFL stadium by possibly covering up some seats in the upper decks of the Linc? Sounds like a game plan to me.

Good to hear the club is closing in on a 10k season ticket number too. Just makes me wish that the ticket sales here in Dallas could even get to that number again!

Just as mentioned in the Power Rankings this morning, we have a couple groups of teams right now in the league. A lead pack, a middle pack and a bottom pack (or crap pack as I like to call them).

As it stands the lead pack has about zero chance to miss out on this year’s post season dance. All four clubs (Columbus, Chicago, Houston, and New England) could just about lose the rest of their games and still reach the playoffs. The likelihood of that actually happening is pretty low though, so you can figure those four in the playoffs right now.

Thanks to our friends over at SportsClubStats.com, the middle pack and bottom packs are pretty interesting based on the calculations they’ve come up with here.

I will start with the bottom pack. Basically from Colorado down to the four clubs tied at the bottom of the standings (KC, Toronto, LA, and Dallas), all stand a very little chance at the moment to reach the playoffs. Nearly each of those five clubs need to win at least four games in their final seven to even have a chance, just a chance at reaching the playoffs.

With the way those five clubs have played this season, you can almost consider them out of the hunt already. Only Kansas City has had an unbeaten run of four games this season and that was way back at the start of the year. The other four couldn’t muster up a run better than three games this season.

So pretty much their chances hang on if they can get at least 12 points out of the next seven games.

DC and New York lead the middle pack with RSL, Chivas and now San Jose following suit. United and the Red Bulls have the best chance out of those middle clubs right now and look to be in good position. Each probably need around eight points in the next seven to be safe.

Interesting though with the three western clubs and their percentages right now. RSL looks decent but those four remaining road games could alter their number. Chivas and San Jose seem to be duking it out for that third and final spot in the west.

Its obvious at this point that those two final spots in the west should come down to two of those three clubs. With three point separating them right now it is pretty much anyone’s bet at this point.

Now things could change if Houston were to start dropping games once the CONCACAF Champions League group stages kick off later this month. The thing is the Dynamo really only need two more wins to be safe here. Judging by their current play those two wins shouldn’t be too hard to come by.

Well, today I found a site that puts the math to the test and helps us figure out what each MLS club’s odds are at making the playoffs in 2008.

Sportsclubstats.com calculates each teams odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. They use various formulas and simulations to help project a possible playoff tree.

So what is your clubs odds according to SportsClubStats? (Kudos to WVH reader henryo for the link)

Columbus Crew: 99.4%
New England Revolution: 99.3%
Chicago Fire: 97.3%
Houston Dynamo: 89.7%
DC United: 83.3%
New York Red Bulls: 82.7%
Real Salt Lake: 49.2%
FC Dallas: 42%
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Toronto FC: 37.5%
Kansas City Wizards: 37%
Colorado Rapids: 24.3%
LA Galaxy: 23.7%
Chivas USA: 22.9%
San Jose Earthquakes: 11.8%

So what do we make of these numbers? Clearly the clubs below the line from the east have a very tough shot at making the playoffs here. Since there are only two automatic bids this year, getting into the playoffs from the eastern conference is a very tough thing to do this year.

Interesting to see how Real Salt Lake is doing here. Clubs like RSL and FC Dallas are definitely lucky with this playoff format this season. There is a clear drop off between DC/New York and RSL/Dallas. RSL’s most recent loss on the road to Columbus dropped them a little more than 10 percent.

Another cool thing this site did was take each club’s remaining games and simulate them a bunch of times. They took the records from those simulations and posted what each club’s odds would be if they had say a 3-4-2 record over their last nine games. Take a club like San Jose who is in the league cellar, according to this site they need at least a five wins over their last nine games to even have a hope of making the playoffs this season. Or you look at a club like Columbus, they need just two or three more wins to be really safe in the playoff race.

Pretty interesting stuff. Check it out and let me know what you think of your club’s odds here.