- Posted by Drew Epperley
- On August 11, 2009
- 8 Comments
- 2010 World Cup, Mexico, World Cup qualifying
I’ve been looking over the CONCACAF Hexagonal standings for the last day or so trying to find a reason to not be stressed over tomorrow’s game in Mexico. So I started looking back on history because I do think history finds a way at repeating itself and staying pretty true.
I then found an article on ESPNinsider’s USMNT blog (subscription required) about the last few qualifying rounds for the US and Mexico. And since most of you may not be be able to read that article, I felt it was worth re-posting for you all to see.
Basically if you go back to 1999, 2001 and 2005’s WC qualifying, the magic number to get in has always been at least 15 points. (Reason for going back to 1999 was due to FIFA giving CONCACAF three automatic bids into the World Cup.)
Here are those standings:
Now look at the current standings:
From this it shouldn’t take much to figure out that the US really just needs two wins to get in. We’re at the half-way point and the US already has 10 points with two home matches remaining. Should the US win those two games we will be at 16 points. Now there could be also be a way to get some road points in places like Trinidad and Tobago or possibly even Honduras.
While it isn’t totally impossible that Mexico, Honduras and El Salvador could pass the US here but I think it is fair to say the US is sitting in a more comfortable place than Mexico is at this point.
And while a result in Mexico would be huge it isn’t totally a must for the US to qualify. Get a draw and you can pretty much bet that Mexico will have a rough way of things to qualify.
I may be one of the few that thinks this way but I think the US is closer to qualifying than most would like to admit. We’ll have more on the big US-Mexico game later today and tomorrow.