- Posted by Drew Epperley
- On June 15, 2009
- 4 Comments
- 2009 Week 13, Cam Weaver, Dominic Kinnear, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, MLS Weekend Recaps, Playoff Chances, Preki, Yura Movsisyan
One could say the 13th week of the season was sort of a changing of the guard type week. Entering the week we had two seemingly clear front-runners in each conference. After the dust settled on the week we now have two new leaders in each conference. The luck changed for some clubs looking to get out of the losing ways while others just continued to find new ways to lose.
Yes, week 13 was just about what we expected excapt for the lack of draws (more on that in a second). I jotted down the usual notes and thoughts from the week to share with you all. Forgive me if some of it is just randomness thrown your way. I ususally try to not dwell in the stats or numbers but I am slowly dipping my feet into that pool for a bit.
I know I am a buzzkill to some fans out there who’s clubs are doing bad. But the facts are these, if your club stinks and you think they still have a shot at things because this is Major League Soccer then you’re wrong this time around. The way this season is going, you won’t find a losing team in the playoffs this season but you will find at least one club with more draws than wins. I think it will happen.
Anyways, I’m no math major, nor was I ever during college. Math was actually my worst subject to say the least but I can do some number crunching when I want to and get fairly decent results out of it. Based on the way things are going this season I’d say the magic number to reach the playoffs this season may be right at 39 or 40 points just like a season ago. Which should mean we won’t see any losing clubs.
With that right there you can pretty much go a head and eliminate New York, San Jose and Dallas from contention. Especially New York who have played half of their season slate right now and are 2-10-3 in those first 15 games. To even reach the playoffs based on what they’ve done midway through their season they will need at a minimum of 10 wins (30 pts.). Which would be 39 total points. Anyone see the Red Bulls pulling off 10 wins in their final 15 games? Didn’t think so either.
Dallas and San Jose aren’t nearly as bad but aren’t that far off from New York’s pace. Their chances combined are probably a good 2-3%. In other words it probably won’t happen this season.
On the flip side I think you could nearly pencil in Houston and Chivas already. Both clubs can pretty much reach the post season with another three or four wins each.
Speaking of JCO
Remember how a lot of people were saying Juan Carlos Osorio would be a great coach in New York when he left Chicago? Well his number aren’t impressive at all as we now know. His all-time mark in MLS is up to 12-21-12. Most of that is due to poor scouting and player signings. Though some of it may also be to the fact that he isn’t that great of a coach afterall.
Who get’s the worst of this though? The Red Bull fans. For years we get loads of hype surrounding this club by the media machine and writers that cover the side. Thing is for years they haven’t been that good for a reason…well lots of reason actually.
Week 13 was good to the league in that there were no draws. In fact the league is possibly on a season long streak of no draws, nine games without a draw. Not bad considering what we’ve seen so far this year.
Look out for Columbus and GBS
We have never seen a repeat MVP in MLS but I think it is high time that it happens. Guillermo Barros Schelotto and his crazy hair is not only carrying Columbus on his back yet again he is doing it by the goal load. The Crew’s come-from-behind win over Chivas yesterday was all at the hands of GBS. Remember last year when he was dropping assists like no other? This year he is dropping the goals like no other. He’s the first this season to reach 10 goals. Yeah, 10 goals in 13 games for the 36-year-old designated player. Probably the best money the Hunts have ever spent would you say?
When Trades Work
It seems like every year Dominic Kinnear strikes a deal with some other club and it is instant pay for his Dynamo side. The pay keeps coming as Kinnear’s newest striker struck goal twice this weekend on the road against Dallas. I knew the Cam Weaver trade would be big for Houston but I honestly didn’t believe he would work out this well this quickly. Two goals and an assist in two games with the Dynamo is not bad at all folks.
When will other managers and GMs realize they only set themseleves up for disaster when they deal with Kinnear.
A Little Road Luck
I think it is fair to say that sometimes you just need things to go your way. In the case of RSL their season may have been slightly saved with a big time road win in LA. RSL managed just one goal in six road games all year until Saturday. With LA down a man it was a perfect time for Jason Kreis’ bunch to cash in on the chance at some road points and goals. For once Yura Movsisyan stepped up and hammered home a goal for his side. That may have saved his job with the club and his club’s season. Sometime it just takes one win to get going, though I do believe RSL still has a lot of work to do here this summer before I see them reaching the post season again.
Chivas Out of Gas?
I think it is fair to say right now that Chivas USA is spent. Preki’s side is still good don’t get me wrong but their last five games haven’t been their best. After racing out to a great start this season they’ve been dropping games like flyes here. It has been to quality sides like Houston, Columbus and Chicago which make me wonder if Preki’s side is ready for big time competition here or if they are just hitting a wall right now. Based on what I saw yesterday in the game against Columbus and the one last Wednesday in Houston…its a giant wall. Then again these international call-ups haven’t helped and one could say his side still isn’t fully healthy here but we know that excuse is old news with this club.
Maybe a break in league play will help them out as they have SuperLiga here soon.
Parity Is Fun
I look at the standings right now and see a bunch of clubs clumped together after Chivas and Houston. Its fun you know, this parity game we play. Seven points in the standings between the 3rd best side (DC) and the 11th/12th (RSL and LA – both with 15 pts.). That isn’t a whole lot of seperation. Though with clubs like KC and Toronto having five losses each makes me think there is still a bit of class between some of these clubs that are just clumped in the middle right now.
Some streaks left us this weekend: RSL’s road winless streak of six games; LA’s 10-game unbeaten run; and Chicago’s unbeaten road record.
Some decided it was best if they stayed a bit longer: New York’s woeful road record, now at MLS-record 20 straight games without a road win; San Jose’s winless road record now at six. Some good in DC’s unbeaten home record; Columbus’ unbeaten in their last nine, not to mention yet another home win; and Houston’s unbeaten mark in 10 games.
Butts in Seats
Yeah this weekend was better but that was due to home games in LA, Seattle, DC and Toronto. The one sub-par was once again in Dallas. Sad to say I failed to make it to that game (thanks to those who were kind enough to send me a get well wish over the weekend…I get migranes easy and they usually put me out for the day).