Miami is still the front-runner for the expansion race.

We started a few months ago with seven hopefuls. Now we are looking at just five. Montreal cooled their jets about MLS expansion back at MLS Cup  and Atlanta did the same last week during the SuperDraft.

Five cities remain in what is starting to sound like a nasty episode of Survivor. Portland, Vancouver, Ottawa, Miami and St. Louis remain. Only two will move on.

Yeah, sounds too much like a reality show.

Anyways, what do we make of the final five here? Will another fall through before the league announces their plans? It’s possible with comments Don Garber made about St. Louis and their situation recently.

Money is still a big issues with most of these bids. Even if the owners have deep pockets that still may not be good enough for the league. And even if the bids have good stadium projects it may not matter.

So where do I see the remaining five? I figured it would be best to rank the final cities before the league made their decision. Here is where I see them standing right now. You may agree or disagree with what I am about to say, and that is fine. Just because a city is ranked above another does not mean I fully support it’s bid for expansion. I think you all know that already though.

[And please spare us all from the typical "City Name and 2010 or 2011" comments...if you have anything to say about this stuff please actually put a thoughtful comment on here and not something that I will want to delete. Believe I get way too tired of saying those kinds of comments everywhere I go that has an expansion discussion. Sorry for the rant. ]

1. Miami

It’s pretty clear that the league won’t be able to pass up this bid. Barca Miami or whatever it will be called (God I hope they come up with an actual name and not that) is bid with loads of money…and a big name in FCB. The league’s relationship with the Spanish club would probably go to waste if this bid is passed up for some reason. I have my doubt about it as I have probably made clear but for right now they are the clear favorites to be selected for a bid.

Now I also don’t think they will be a MLS club in 2010. Even if Philly continues to have issues I just don’t buy into Miami being back in the league as early as next year. Just my opinion though. I’m sure there will be floods of comments with Miami 2010 or whatever.

I still believe that the Barca owners have no idea what they are really getting into as far as dealing with MLS roster rules and such go. I know it will be more on Marcelo Claure to do the day-to-day running of this club but even he won’t be able to handle the weird rules that the league imposes on clubs. But that is a story for another day.

Pluses on the bid: Loads of money, big name.

Minuses on the bid: History in Miami, Stadium deal isn’t as sweet as some think it is due to two words: Field Turf.

2. Portland

The more bad press St. Louis gets the better for Portland. I know their owners are trying to do whatever they can to get a bid in place for 2011. Right now I have them getting in because I do see Paulson ponying up the cash to get the renovations in place at PGE Park and enough to pay the expansion fee. But if St. Louis get’s their act together in the bank department they may get the nod above Portland…it just all comes down to who the league sees having more money and right now it is Portland.

Pluses on the bid: History in city, supporters group larger than any other bid, most MLS-ready of any bid.

Minuses on the bid: Stadium situation needs to be resolved, money still not all there.

3. St. Louis

This one was tough for me but right now it looks like St. Louis may get left out yet again. The money is the real issue with this bid still and the league continues to discuss it. Not a good sign. Thing is the league wants to be there and they will before long. It just may not be in 2011. In 2013 or whenever I would have to think a deal will finally work out. Sad part too since they actually have a legit stadium plan and not some shared facility with a college.

Pluses on the bid: Stadium deal (the only one with a legit stadium and not a renovation or shared deal), history of the sport in the city.

Minuses on the bid: Money situation.

4. Vancouver

Montreal dropping out really opened the door for Vancouver but right now the bid just isn’t as strong as the other American bids. Sure the makeover to BC Place is nice but let’s be real honest about it here, the league doesn’t have to go to another Canadian city right away again. Toronto has been great but the next Canadian city can wait a little while longer.

Vancouver could still sneak in over Portland but I just don’t think they will right now. The league wants a true rival to Seattle and Portland would be better at that than Vancouver. I know Vancouver supporters will claim that they will be a rival for Seattle and Toronto but I think TFC will be fine without Vancouver where as Seattle will not thrive as well without Portland.

Pluses on the bid: Rivalries to Seattle/Toronto, money situation may be just as good as Miami.

Minuses on the bid: Stadium deal isn’t that great, would be better with a true soccer stadium.

5. Ottawa

Why was this a bid in the first place? How it is still standing is another thing. At least they can say they won’t be dead last in this since Atlanta and Montreal backed out. Its just sad this ownership group wasn’t in another city or we may be talking about it more.

Pluses on the bid: Stadium deal was pretty nice.

Minuses on the bid: Everything else. Just a waste of a bid really.