- Posted by Drew Epperley
- On September 9, 2008
- 0 Comments
- MLS Cup Playoffs, Playoff Odds, Playoff Push
For a few teams in Major League Soccer, their chances of reaching the playoffs this season are rapidly fading away. Other clubs have little or not doubt that they are in and a few are actually battling things out here in the final stages of the season.
Just as mentioned in the Power Rankings this morning, we have a couple groups of teams right now in the league. A lead pack, a middle pack and a bottom pack (or crap pack as I like to call them).
As it stands the lead pack has about zero chance to miss out on this year’s post season dance. All four clubs (Columbus, Chicago, Houston, and New England) could just about lose the rest of their games and still reach the playoffs. The likelihood of that actually happening is pretty low though, so you can figure those four in the playoffs right now.
Thanks to our friends over at SportsClubStats.com, the middle pack and bottom packs are pretty interesting based on the calculations they’ve come up with here.
I will start with the bottom pack. Basically from Colorado down to the four clubs tied at the bottom of the standings (KC, Toronto, LA, and Dallas), all stand a very little chance at the moment to reach the playoffs. Nearly each of those five clubs need to win at least four games in their final seven to even have a chance, just a chance at reaching the playoffs.
With the way those five clubs have played this season, you can almost consider them out of the hunt already. Only Kansas City has had an unbeaten run of four games this season and that was way back at the start of the year. The other four couldn’t muster up a run better than three games this season.
So pretty much their chances hang on if they can get at least 12 points out of the next seven games.
DC and New York lead the middle pack with RSL, Chivas and now San Jose following suit. United and the Red Bulls have the best chance out of those middle clubs right now and look to be in good position. Each probably need around eight points in the next seven to be safe.
Interesting though with the three western clubs and their percentages right now. RSL looks decent but those four remaining road games could alter their number. Chivas and San Jose seem to be duking it out for that third and final spot in the west.
Its obvious at this point that those two final spots in the west should come down to two of those three clubs. With three point separating them right now it is pretty much anyone’s bet at this point.
Now things could change if Houston were to start dropping games once the CONCACAF Champions League group stages kick off later this month. The thing is the Dynamo really only need two more wins to be safe here. Judging by their current play those two wins shouldn’t be too hard to come by.